Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and stability for the foreseeable future. The consensus view is that the U.S. economy is (very) strong and the risk of recession remains (very) low.
There are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is (substantially) incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that continue to exist, some of which have grown in severity. As well, many economic indicators portray facets of weak growth or outright decline.
From an “all things considered” standpoint, I continue to believe the overall level of risk is at a fantastic level, one that is far greater than that experienced at any time in the history of the United States.
Cumulatively, these highly problematical conditions will lead to future upheaval. The resolution of these problematical conditions will determine the ongoing viability of the financial system and economy as well as the accompanying quality of living.
As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:
My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2913.98 as this post is written