As seen in various surveys, speeches, risk indicators, and financial market dynamics the consensus among investors, government officials, and others is that the level of risk in the financial system is (very) low and the future prospects of substantial economic weakness and/or a large decline in the stock market and other financial markets remains very low.
There are many reasons to believe that this very widely-held consensus is incorrect. As extensively discussed throughout this site, there are many highly problematical economic and financial conditions in existence and many have grown in severity.
Taking into account the overall situation, I continue to believe that the overall level of risk is at a level that is far greater than at any other time in the history of the United States.
The manner and severity of the future resolution of these problematical conditions is the paramount determinant as to the future viability of the financial system and economy as well as the accompanying quality of living.
As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:
My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2752.01 as this post is written