Here is testimony by Christina Romer before the Joint Economic Committee on October 22, 2009:
Readers of this blog will know that I don’t agree with many of the statements and forecasts found in this testimony. However, I am calling attention to it because it has several notable passages, as well as forecasts.
Although we have heard similar statements from other economists, here is one such notable passage found beginning on the bottom of page 10:
“Leaving aside timing issues, the unemployment rate typically falls when GDP growth exceeds its normal rate of roughly two and a half percent per year and rises when GDP growth falls short of this pace. With predicted growth right around two and a half percent for most of the next year and a half, movements in the unemployment rate either up or down are likely to be small. As a result, unemployment is likely to remain at its severely elevated level.”
SPX at 1079.60 as this post is written