Tag Archives: USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index

Updates On Economic Indicators January 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 27, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 24 Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth”  :

“The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, gaining momentum this year. The index forecasts a growth rate of 3.7% in March and April, up from 2.1% in September. Improved consumer and business confidence and the new tax legislation are expected to help fuel growth. But continued high unemployment, a still-weak housing sector and tight credit conditions will keep growth below 4% this year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 1/14/11 the WLI was at 128.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.1%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 3 was at 46.1, as seen below:

From the January 3 Press Release, “Driven by a wide range of upbeat grassroots economic news, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) jumped 2.2 points to 46.1 in December, breaking out of its previous range and indicating the economy could be picking up momentum at the start of 2011.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-22-09 to 1-22-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 20 release, the LEI was at 112.4 and the CEI was at 101.9 in December.

An excerpt from the January 20, 2011 Press Release:

“Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:  ‘While the LEI points to an economic expansion that is gaining further traction, its components still suggest the expansion path may be uneven.  December’s gain was led by housing permits, the interest rate spread, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer expectations.  The large increases in December and November show that, after a brief pause in the second quarter of 2010, the LEI is resuming the upward trend that began in March 2009.'”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1299.54 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators December 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 20, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the November 24 Release :

“The November update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, stabilizing at 2.2% in December through March and 2.1% in April. Weak housing and employment combined with high debt and tight credit continue to impede growth.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 12/10/10 the WLI was at 127.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.1%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of November 30 was at 43.9, as seen below:

An excerpt from the November 30 News Release:

““The ESI signals that the economy is in a holding pattern,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “If it had risen sharply, confirming October’s strong rise, then it would have been a very positive sign. Instead we are seeing an economy still poised between modest growth and a slipping back.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-11-08 to 12-11-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the December 17 release, the LEI was at 112.4 and the CEI was at 101.7 in November.

An excerpt from the December 17, 2010 Press Release:

“Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “November’s sharp increase in the LEI, the fifth consecutive gain, is an early sign that the expansion is gaining momentum and spreading.  Nearly all components rose in November.  Continuing strength in financial indicators is now joined by gains in manufacturing and consumer expectations, but housing remains weak.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1254.60 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators November 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 22, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the October 27 Release, titled “Latest economic index forecasts weak growth through first quarter” :

“The October update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.4% in October and then increasing to 2.0% in February and March, as weak housing and employment conditions continue to impede growth.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 11/12/10 the WLI was at 124.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -4.5%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of November 1 was at 43.9, as seen below:

An excerpt from the November 1 release:

“The Dow Jones Economic Indicator (ESI) jumped 3.2  points to 43.9  in October, an unusually strong gain. In back-testing through 1990, election year Octobers averaged a 0.3 point rise. The ESI is now at its highest point since December 2007.

October’s gain, however, was preceded by a 2.5 point drop in September. The ESI’s turbulence implies that the economy is teetering between a slow climb up and a relapse.

“The Dow Jones ESI rebounded in October from its dip the previous month, resuming a modest upward trend seen during much of the year,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “The indicator, however, is still well below levels seen during normal expansions. The October number was not particularly boosted by press coverage of impending quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve or from any one off factors, supporting the view that it reflects self sustaining growth in the economy.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-13-08 to 11-13-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the November 18 release, the LEI was at 111.3 and the CEI was at 101.5 in October.

An excerpt from the November 18, 2010 Press Release:

“Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy is slow, but latest data on the U.S. LEI suggest that change may be around the corner. Expect modest holiday sales, driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1197.84 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators October 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 25, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the October 28 Release, titled “Latest economic index forecasts weak growth through first quarter” :

“The October update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.4% in October and then increasing to 2.0% in February and March, as weak housing and employment conditions continue to impede growth.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 10/15/10 the WLI was at 122.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -6.8%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of September 30 was at 40.7, as seen below:

An excerpt from the September 30 release:

“Following five months of modest but steady gains, the Dow Jones Economic Indicator (ESI) fell to 40.7 in September, down from 43.2 in August and its largest one-month drop since October 2008.  And while the Indicator has historically declined in September, there are signs that the economic recovery is faltering with a sharp increase in negative economic stories during the last seven days of the month.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 10-23-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 21 release, the LEI was at 110.4 and the CEI was at 101.4 in September.

An excerpt from the October 21, 2010 Press Release:

“Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board:  “More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum.  The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.78 as this post is written


Updates On Economic Indicators September 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 27, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from August 31, 2010:

“The August update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.3% in November through January. The end of government stimulus spending and inventory buildup combined with continuing high unemployment, a weak housing market, tight credit and high debt are behind the slowdown.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 9/17/10 the WLI was at 122.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -8.7%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 43.2, as seen below:

An excerpt from the August 31 Press Release:

“The ESI’s stability during recent months belies some of the recent weakness seen in other sentiment surveys and suggests that the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy, including employment, remains positive,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “However, the ESI remains well below the 50-plus levels that characterize normal expansions. This relative weakness suggests it would take little to push the economy back into recessionary conditions.”

The ESI is determined using an economic sentiment analysis algorithm to review news coverage in 15 daily newspapers across the U.S.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 9-18-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the September 23 release, the LEI was at 110.2 and the CEI was at 101.3 in August.

An excerpt from the August 23, 2010 Press Release:

“Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board:  “While the recession officially ended in June 2009, the recent pace of growth has been disappointingly slow, fueling concern that the economic recovery could fade and the U.S. could slide back into recession.  However, latest data from the U.S. LEI suggests little change in economic conditions over the next few months.  Expect more of the same – a weak economy with little forward momentum through 2010 and early 2011.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I wrote a post concerning this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

SPX at 1148.67 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators August 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 23, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from August 16, 2010:

“The July 28 update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.5% in December. The end of government stimulus spending and inventory buildup combined with continuing high unemployment, a weak housing market, tight credit and high debt are behind the slowdown.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 8/13/10 the WLI was at 120.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.0%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 2 was at 42.3, as seen below:

An excerpt from the August 2 Press Release:

“The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has given an upbeat signal on the economy, registering its biggest rise since October and a return to the level of June 2008.”

also:

““The Dow Jones ESI’s rise suggests the prospects of a double dip recession have receded,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “The ESI is still at a very low level, just above where it has in the past signalled a drop into recession. The indicator, however, has been steadily climbing since April 2010 which implies continued economic improvement.”

also:

“The ESI’s back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 8-14-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the August 19 release, the LEI was at 109.8 and the CEI was at 101.4 in July.

An excerpt from the August 19, 2010 Press Release:

“”The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I wrote a post concerning this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

SPX at 1067.36 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators July 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 26, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from July 26, 2010:

“The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.5% in December. The end of government stimulus spending and inventory buildup combined with continuing high unemployment, a weak housing market, tight credit and high debt are behind the slowdown.

The index predicts future real GDP growth (gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation) based on 11 leading economic and financial indicators.

Four of the 11 indicators were positive in July, down from five last month and the lowest number since USA TODAY first published the index in June 2009.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 7/16/10 the WLI was at 120.17 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.5%.  A chart of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of June 30 was at 40.3, as seen below:

An excerpt from the June 30 Press Release:

““The ESI’s modest and steady rise over the last couple of months is a positive sign, but the U.S. is not out of the woods yet,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “Anxiety about the U.S.’s employment conditions and questions around Europe’s stability are key concerns that are unlikely to subside soon.”

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. Using a proprietary algorithm and derived data technology, the ESI examines every article in each of the newspapers for positive and negative sentiment about the economy. The indicator is calculated through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. The technology used for the ESI also powers Dow Jones Lexicon, a proprietary dictionary that allows traders and analysts to determine sentiment, frequency and other relevant complex patterns within news to develop predictive trading strategies.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 7-17-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As of July 22, the LEI was at 109.8 and the CEI was at 101.4 in June.

An excerpt from the June 22, 2010 Press Release:

“”The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I wrote a post concerning this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1113.68 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 28, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from June 23, 2010:

“The June update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing from 4.1% in April to 3.1% in November. Increased consumer and business equipment and software spending fueled strong growth in the spring, but tight credit, high debt and continuing high unemployment will slow growth in the second half of the year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 6/18/10 the WLI was at 122.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -6.9%.  A chart of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

An excerpt from a June 25 Reuters article: “”After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.”

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of June 1 was at 39.4.  An excerpt from the June 1 Press Release:

““Overall, the ESI has been flat during recent months. This likely reflects the failure of a significant pickup in underlying employment trends and suggests that while the U.S. economy is no longer in recession, its recovery is subdued,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “The modest rise of the Dow Jones ESI in May is largely due to a reversal of April’s slight downward distortion caused by coverage of the Congressional inquiry into Goldman Sachs.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 6-19-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, as of June 17, 2010:

The LEI was at 109.9 and the CEI was at 101.3 in May.

An excerpt from the June 17, 2010 Press Release:

““The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak in December 2006,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United States, have been improving steadily since November 2009, thanks to gains in payroll employment and industrial production.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1041.24 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt of May 24, 2010:

“The May update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows strong growth in real GDP, at a six-month annualized growth rate, in April and May followed by slower, yet solid, growth in June through October. Increased consumer and business spending will fuel strong growth into the second quarter, but tight credit, high debt and still-high unemployment will moderate growth in the second half of the year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) : Last updated 5/14/10:

The WLI is at 127.3

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Index as of April 30 was at 38.3.  The title of the April 30 news release is “Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator slips to 38.3 for April; signals that Recovery has yet to firmly take hold.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

Here is the latest chart, updated through 5-15-10:

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1074.14 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10)

The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

an excerpt dated 4/29/10:

“The April update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows moderate growth in real GDP, at a six-month annualized growth rate, through late summer. The forecasted April growth rate of 3.6% is expected to slow to 3.0% – 3.1% for June through September. Tight credit, high debt burdens and the government’s monetary and fiscal stimulus programs coming to an end will temper consumer spending, keeping the growth rate solid but moderate.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) : Last updated 4/16/10:

The WLI is at 133.0

Fortune’s Big Picture Index:

-I was unable to locate updated values for this index-

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

As of 3/31/10 the Indicator was at 39.4.  An excerpt from the release:

“”Although the rise is modest, it is better than the stagnation of recent months,” Alen Mattich, Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist, said. “If repeated in April it could indicate that the economy is starting to haul itself slowly upwards again.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

Here is the latest chart, updated through 4-24-10:

The Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) and CEI (Coincident Economic Index): (pdf)

As of April 19, the LEI was at 109.6 for March, and the CEI was at 100.2 for March.  The chart shows a continuing large disparity between the two measures.

From the Press Release: “Adds Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to a slow recovery that should continue over the next few months.  The leading, coincident and lagging series are rising.  Strength of demand remains the big question going forward.  Improvements in employment and income will be the key factors in whether consumers push the recovery on a stronger path.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1206.26 as this post is written