America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Boston Federal Reserve recently came out with a report dated August 12 titled “Reasonable People Did Disagree: Optimism and Pessimism About the U.S. Housing Market Before the Crash.” (pdf) A sentence from the abstract is particularly interesting: “We conclude by arguing that economic theory provides little guidance as to what should be the “correct” …
On August 13 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “J&J Sets a Yield Low.” From the story: “The health-care products firm sold 10-year bonds with an interest rate of 2.95%, or a risk premium of 0.43 percentage point over comparable Treasurys.” The story provides an overview of the strong market environment for both …
On June 8 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Bond-Fund Managers See Signs of a Bubble.” While most people wouldn’t think of the bond market as having bubble characteristics, nonetheless such a bubble has developed. The article mentions several vulnerabilities the bond bubble faces. I would add that a major vulnerability is a …
I ran across the following weekly S&P500 chart and comment from Maurice Walker, of thechartpatterntrader.com at StockCharts.com. Although I do not necessarily agree with all of the chart’s annotations and the accompanying commentary, I definitely think that both are worthy of contemplation: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com (one can click on the chart to enlarge the …
I recently saw an ad for “Bubble Investing” and thought it was notable. It used to be that the mere idea of an asset bubble led to concern. Now, it appears as if asset bubbles are seen by many as more of an opportunity than a threat. Of course, investing in bubbles can be profitable. …
On April 8 I commented upon William C. Dudley’s “Asset Bubbles” speech. In that speech, he refers to Frederic Mishkin’s speech of May 15, 2008. It should also be noted that Mishkin offered similar thoughts in a Financial Times op-ed of November 9, 2009. There is much I can comment about in each of Mishkin’s …
Here is a link to an interview today with Nouriel Roubini in which he discusses bubbles: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35078010 I would argue against those who believe that bubbles could start to form or that they are just beginning to form. I strongly believe that there are many bubbles in existence right now, and the implications of such …
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …