Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields

For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year.  Of note, yesterday the yield on the 10-Year Treasury fell below 2% on an intraday basis, but closed at 2.09%. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last … Read more Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields

QE2’s Effectiveness

This post is an update to that of December 9, 2010, “Measuring QE2 Effectiveness.” There are many different ways one could use to gauge whether QE2 is successful.  Of great significance, I am not aware of any official statement that specifically states the goals (and metrics of such) of QE2. However, lowering of interest rates, … Read more QE2’s Effectiveness

Measuring QE2 Effectiveness

In announcing QE2 in their November 3 FOMC meeting, the statement contained the following excerpt: “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over … Read more Measuring QE2 Effectiveness

Market Overview – Part III: Bond Market & Interest Rates

(this is the third in a series of five posts concerning the markets) The bond market is believed by many to be an asset bubble.  I agree with this assessment, and have written a few posts on the subject.  I discussed when it may “burst” and other considerations in an October 4 post. The chart … Read more Market Overview – Part III: Bond Market & Interest Rates

The Threat Of Rising Interest Rates

As seen on the following 10-year daily chart, the 10-Year Treasury Yield has been rising as of late: chart courtesy of There is very little general expectation for a significant rise in interest rates.  In fact, the average economist forecast (as seen for the March 2010 Wall Street Journal Economist Survey) for the 10-Year … Read more The Threat Of Rising Interest Rates

The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As … Read more The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Peril In The Markets? Part II

I have included two charts of the Ten-Year Treasury yields below – one daily and one monthly.  The monthly is provided for a longer-term perspective. I would like to address the daily chart.  It seems odd that in an environment in which inflation is (purportedly) a growing concern the economy is supposedly recovering faster than … Read more Peril In The Markets? Part II

10-year Treasury Yield

It is interesting that there has been relatively little commentary on the increase of the 10-year Treasury yield. In my opinion the rise is significant in many ways.  Perhaps chief among them is the fact that the yield has risen sharply (to a current 3.46%) despite a large-scale intervention designed to bring yields lower.   This divergence is significant because it … Read more 10-year Treasury Yield