Are We In a Depression?

One of the questions that seems to be popular since the economic events of 2008 is whether we are in a Depression.  As such, for the next few posts I will be commenting on the topic. Here are two links that indicate that we are not in a Depression: http://seekingalpha.com/article/142831-great-depression-ii-it-s-not-even-close?source=email http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/update-what-is-depression.html Yet, as indicated in this …

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Moral Hazard Wonderland

To date, I haven’t written or otherwise commented about the issue of Moral Hazard. Perhaps the main reason is that I am afraid if I start writing about it, I may never stop… Needless to say, the issue of Moral Hazard and its implications are massive, and just seems to grow with time.  It seems …

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Current Economic Forecasts

It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …

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Managing Economic Uncertainty

A couple of days ago I posted excerpts of a speech by Ben Bernanke in which he outlines various reasons for inherent uncertainty and difficulty in economic predictions and forecasts. It appears that ever since the start of The Financial Crisis, in early 2007, it has been very difficult for forecasters to accurately predict economic performance.   For those interested, I have compiled …

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Businesses and Economic Stress

My analyses indicate that, unfortunately, businesses will continue to face very challenging conditions. Many already find themselves in rather perilous circumstances, as witnessed by the number and breadth (across industries) of companies experiencing double-digit revenue declines, not to mention innumerable other statistics. On a couple of occasions I have written about the conditions that businesses face during …

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Consumer-Led Recovery Story

This story, “On Borrowed Time : Consumer-Led Recovery” was in The Wall Street Journal on June 9.  I found the chart and its implications to be interesting.  One is led to wonder “how much gas is left in the tank” with regard to Household Debt as a Percentage of Disposable Income.  This is  especially an issue with “Income” and …

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Green Shoots

I find it interesting that the term “Green Shoots” seems to have been eradicated in any official government comments regarding the economy.  I am not sure why this is so, as the term itself seems rather innocuous. There must be a reason for its demise, however… SPX at 907.07 as this post is written

A Limited Time Offer

I get the feeling that many people believe that we will get many opportunities to resolve The Financial Crisis and the associated economic difficulties now present.  In other words, should the already enacted interventions, stimulus plans, bailouts, etc. not work, we as a nation won’t be limited in our number of potential efforts and will …

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