America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In my April 27 post (“Reasons Behind Gold’s Ascent“) I outlined a variety of factors that I believed were driving Gold’s advance. Point #4 on the list was “…an expectation of high future inflation.” It should be also noted that the inverse of this condition – an expectation of deflation – can serve to depress …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 22, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.7% full-year 2012 : 2.6% full-year 2013 : 2.9% full-year …
In various past posts I have written of the challenges businesses face in pricing, given today’s economic environment. One aspect that I mentioned in the April 25 2011 and December 16 2010 posts was how the PPI (Producer Price Index) growth was significantly outpacing that of the CPI. Since those posts, this PPI-CPI growth rate issue has remained …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 conference call transcript (pdf) dated August 16, 2011. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly results; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts that I find …
On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. In particular, I would like to highlight my post of October 4 2010, “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” During the recent market tumult, bond yields have once again dropped sharply to very low levels, as seen by the yield on the 10-Year …
The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published August 12, 2011. The headline is “Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another …
From time to time, most recently in the October 25 2010 post titled “Market Overview – Part II: U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen & Gold” I have commented upon the Japanese Yen. Here is what I said then about the Yen, which I still believe to be the case today. I have also included a chart …
With all of the recent attention given to the U.S. credit downgrade by S&P, I think it is interesting to look back at the debate on the topic in February 2010. On February 11 2010, I wrote a blog post titled “Treasury Secretary Geithner’s Comments” regarding an interview he gave that week, in which he …