America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are two charts from the Minneapolis Fed site: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm They show, from a historical context, how declines in employment and output during this period of economic weakness (which FRB Minneapolis refers to as a recession) compare to those of previous recessions. First, the employment chart. Here are two notes regarding this chart: 1. Employment …
With the recent unveiling of the proposed FY2011 budget, I would like to make a few comments with regard to budget deficits and federal expenditures. Here is a historical chart of federal expenditures. This chart is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website. This chart helps one put rising government expenditures in a historical context: …
I found some interesting comments in the SIGTARP January 30 2010 Report to Congress: http://www.sigtarp.gov/reports/congress/2010/January2010_Quarterly_Report_to_Congress.pdf From the Executive Summary, which begins on Page 5: “Many of TARP’s stated goals, however, have simply not been met. Despite the fact that the explicit goal of the Capital Purchase Program (“CPP”) was to increase financing to U.S. businesses and consumers, …
I find a periodic review of Gold’s price relative to the Dow Jones Industrials’ and to Crude Oil’s interesting. Below is a long-term monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average price relative to that of Gold’s. As one can see, Gold has been outperforming since roughly 2001, after underperforming from roughly 1981-2000: chart courtesy …
I came upon another economic outlook index, this one titled “USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index.” The link is found here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm The index is designed to predict real GDP growth and is a composite of 11 indicators. Currently the chart shows a prediction for each month in 2010 up through June. The June …
I came across this commentary from Fareed Zakaria on CNN yesterday. It is titled “Bonus For Bernanke?” : http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2010/01/31/gps.bernanke.bonus.cnn?iref=allsearch I mildly or strongly disagree with most of the assertions made by Fareed Zakaria in this piece. The reason that I post it is that it contains a very good, concise representation of ideas from …
I have been looking at the revenue figures posted for a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors. These are well-respected, S&P500 firms. One would expect these firms to be posting decent revenue gains, especially as compared to the very weak year-ago period (4Q2008). Additionally, these firms stand to benefit from the prevailing economic climate due …
I found plenty of noteworthy comments in last night’s State of the Union Address. Here is the link to the transcript: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-state-union-address Here are a couple of my thoughts: First, many stimulus initiatives were mentioned. Some of these were new ideas. That stimulus ideas are proliferating should not be a surprise, as many in …
Here is a link to an interview today with Nouriel Roubini in which he discusses bubbles: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35078010 I would argue against those who believe that bubbles could start to form or that they are just beginning to form. I strongly believe that there are many bubbles in existence right now, and the implications of such …
I ran across this article from U.S. News & World Report, dated 1/19/10 concerning “strategic defaults”: http://www.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/real-estate/articles/2010/01/19/strategic-defaults-and-the-foreclosure-crisis.html The article is interesting in that it summarizes various facets of the “strategic default” situation and presents an interesting example of the dynamics that one “underwater” homeowner faces. I have mentioned “strategic defaults” on numerous occasions. It is a very important “wildcard” …