America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …
John Taylor’s May 21 blog post discusses the stimulus multiplier used for the ARRA and new research from the IMF with regard to actual stimulus multipliers. The chart shown has immense significance on a variety of fronts, assuming that the IMF research is representative of the effectiveness of stimulus spending. We, as a nation, do …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …
I ran across the following weekly S&P500 chart and comment from Maurice Walker, of thechartpatterntrader.com at StockCharts.com. Although I do not necessarily agree with all of the chart’s annotations and the accompanying commentary, I definitely think that both are worthy of contemplation: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com (one can click on the chart to enlarge the …
I recently saw an ad for “Bubble Investing” and thought it was notable. It used to be that the mere idea of an asset bubble led to concern. Now, it appears as if asset bubbles are seen by many as more of an opportunity than a threat. Of course, investing in bubbles can be profitable. …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey. From the MacroMarkets.com website: “MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices …
Over the last few months, four phrases have been used frequently in describing our economic condition. I find these phrases to be inaccurate and misleading. Here are the four phrases (in italics) and some brief commentary: “the Great Recession” Many people have labeled the economic weakness (ended by the subsequent purported economic recovery) as “the …
Yesterday The Wall Street Journal had a story about Wal-Mart’s results. I found two aspects of the story notable. First, the sales results seemed particularly low in relation to the recent widespread media coverage of strong retail sales. Wal-Mart “said that U.S. sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.1%, and store visits …
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …