America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on December 1, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 11-25-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (their latest estimates are as of November 22), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $97.48/share -From a “top down” perspective, …
What is the official definition of an (economic) depression? Although the term is often heard, the term seems to lack a well-structured definition. There is a section discussing depressions on The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions page. As seen in the discussion, it says: The term depression is often used to refer …
On November 25, the Liberty Street Economics blog (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) published a post titled “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” The post examines the inability of the New York Fed, as well as the vast majority of professional forecasters in general, to predict the “Great Recession.” It also mentions the …
On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth. I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators. Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011. The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. …
Yesterday, CBS aired a segment on its “Sunday Morning” show titled “America’s new poor.” While dynamics similar to those discussed in the segment have been noted in previous posts on this blog, this segment is yet another notable reminder of the changing economic condition and the growing need for food assistance. This segment focuses on …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief update to that post. My overall analysis continues to indicate that there is an elevated and growing level of danger. Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems, …