America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
With regard to the finance reform bill, I found a few comments in Friday’s (July 16) Wall Street Journal to be notable. First, this quote from a story titled “Impact to Reach Beyond Wall Street”: “”The bill does not respond at all to the causes of the financial crisis,” said Peter Wallison, a former Reagan …
As I commented in the July 12 post: “For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.” Along those lines, I would like to make comments on the ECRI WLI …
I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.” As well, there a variety of interesting questions …
Here are two charts that I have found interesting from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe they are helpful in understanding the current stock market situation. I would like to reiterate my view that we are in a bear market rally, albeit subject to conditions I spoke of in my June 2 post. Here is …
In March of 2009 I wrote an article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” I am sure that the mere idea of such a target seems impossible to many. However, for a variety of reasons, many indicated in the aforementioned article, I believe that such a target is not only possible but increasing in likelihood. …
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Why This Isn’t Like 1938 – At Least Not Yet.” Ever since the onset of the “Financial Crisis” there has been a continual flow of comparisons of our current economic situation to that of The Great Depression. Last year I wrote about these comparisons on …
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Toward that end, I recently came about a July 5 article, found here, from Doug Short that provides a good (and …
Frequently, one hears of the high profits and large (from a historical perspective) cash positions of companies. While this may be true more or less, especially among larger companies, I believe that it depicts the current overall business environment in an overly positive light. As I have written of previously, there are significant problem areas …
This post is an update to posts of March 17 and January 13. Here is a chart of the U.S. Dollar on a monthly basis since 1983: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com On the aforementioned March 17 and January 13 posts, I spoke of numerous reasons to expect, and fear, a U.S. Dollar decline, both from …
Occasionally I hear “That won’t be allowed to happen,” which has been said by many prominent people within the political, financial and economic community. This phrase, in essence, is meant to say that some type of severe economic weakness or other calamitous economic event won’t, and can’t, occur. I find this phrase rather mystifying; rarely …