America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures. I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction. There are a variety …
I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses. My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10. The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers. This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2. I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity …
On Tuesday The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on the FHA (Federal Housing Administration). I found it to be a good overview of the situation there. The editorial can be found at this link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574428970233151130.html I find this FHA situation highly disconcerting, especially in light of how similar situations have played out, and are playing out, …
Just a quick note. I think it is important to remember that there is a tremendous amount of what I refer to as “garbage” securities currently in existence. It is easy to forget this fact given that we don’t hear much about them anymore. This is due to many reasons, including: various credit spreads have been …
It is my belief that there will be many phenomenal investment opportunities arising in the near and intermediate future. Many more than during an average time period. However, I am also of the belief that they will be harder to “realize” for a variety of reasons. Of course, the main prerequisite is having sufficient funds available …
Here is a link to an interesting White Paper from Guy Haselmann of Gregoire Capital, dated August 2009: http://www.gregoirecapital.com/HF%20Outlook%208-09.pdf I found it interesting because it discusses a variety of very important concepts such as investment flexibility, market dislocations, inflation vs. deflation, diversification, hedge fund operating risk, etc. SPX at 1063.22 as this post is written
Here is a story from CNBC.com on September 23: “Buy-and-Hold Investing Makes A Return After Turbulent Year” http://www.cnbc.com/id/32970487 I am not a fan of the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, although I will concede that it worked (very) well, generally speaking, during the 20th Century. As far as the present and future is concerned, I wrote …
With Gold now below $1000, I would like to call attention to a post of September 4 titled “Gold and Implications.” Here is the link: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/09/04/gold-and-implications/ I think that Gold below $1000, after having failed to hold above this level, is very significant. Also significant is the number of people who have been predicting a …
Just a couple of quick notes: First, as many already know, I occasionally write blog post “series” that span over a few blog posts. Usually these blog series concern topics that I feel very strongly about, and/or are sufficiently complex to require more than one post. I have created a “blog post” page that indicates …
Here is a September 17 story detailing a Bloomberg News poll: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDhCOltOR1RY I found various aspects of this story to be interesting, but one facet really stood out: “Respondents were divided over whether the economy will get better or stay the same in the next six months; only 1 in 6 said things will get …