America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
On September 30 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.” My thoughts on ECRI’s work are complex. While I don’t necessarily agree with their comments in this September 30 statement, I do find the following excerpts to be especially notable: Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed …
On September 8, President Obama gave the Address by the President to a Joint Session of Congress. It concerned the economy and the American Jobs Act. (I highlighted what I believed to be the most notable excerpts in a September 9 blog post titled “President Obama’s Address of September 8 2011“) In the Address, President …
Since the S&P500 highs of early May and early July I have written a variety of posts warning of what I considered cautionary signs for the stock market. One of those posts was on August 29, titled “The Near Term Direction Of The Stock Market.” In that post I commented: Was that August 9 low …
In my August 25 post (“Gold And Deflationary Pressures“) I spoke of the correction in Gold and its broader economic implications. At that time Gold was at $1726/oz (December futures.) Now, the December Gold futures are at $1645.1/oz. If one views Gold’s ascent from early 2009, one can see a rising trendline – one that …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 26, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
In the September 18 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2011“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2011:Q2). The last value is $58.463 Trillion: The …
Yesterday (September 21) MacroMarkets released its September 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results. This survey is now done on a quarterly basis. The accompanying chart is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market …
Yesterday CBSChicago.com had a story titled “Study Finds 1 in 5 Chicagoans Are Hungry.” Although the entire article is worthwhile, I find the following excerpts to be most notable (and disconcerting): The Greater Chicago Food Depository has, for the first time, done a neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown of hunger in the Chicago area. As WBBM’s Mike Krauser …