America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the June 29 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. …
In yesterday’s post (“4 Confidence Charts – December 2011“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500. Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence at an Eight-Month High“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University of Michigan charts in …
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-27-11: – …
Gold has recently been in a correction (or consolidation) after a very steep rally. It appears as if Gold is at a critical juncture at present. As seen in the chart below (which depicts Gold on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2008) Gold, at $1594.60/oz, is currently right below both the 200dma (depicted in …
On December 20 Zillow released its December 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey results. This survey (formerly called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectation Survey) is done on a quarterly basis. The accompanying chart is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 22, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the December 1 update titled “Index …
In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!” Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 27: The mean prediction of …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011. The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.” The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover. I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don’t agree with …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief third update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative …
In the December 13 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2011“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2011:Q3). The last value (as of December 9, …