America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 24, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 5-18-12 on a …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April, last updated on May 24. This value is 215,527 ($ Millions) : (click on charts …
Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve released the May 2012 Business Outlook Survey. One aspect I found particularly notable was a chart indicating responses to “Factors Restraining Hiring.” As indicated, the foremost response was “Expected growth of sales is low.” In various blog posts – including the April 24 post titled “The Unemployment Situation Facing …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 21, 2012: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the April 26 update titled “Index …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q1 2013 earnings call transcript (pdf) dated May 17, 2012. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 11, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 5-11-12 on a …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 12th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
Recently, there has been increasing mention of the Federal Reserve’s “Dual Mandate.” While my thoughts on the topic are complex, and I am not necessarily in agreement with it, I think highlighting some reference material on the the “Dual Mandate” is apropos as I expect there to be much more mention of this in the …