America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Yesterday saw the release of “Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States, 2011″ (pdf) from the U.S. Census Bureau. As seen on page 5: Median household income was $50,054 in 2011, a 1.5 percent decline in real terms from 2010. This was the second consecutive annual decline in household income. In 2011, real median …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 6, 2012: Year 2012 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $101.66/share …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of September 7 …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on September 6, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 31, …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
GDP is an economic measure that I rarely mention in this blog, as I believe that, for a variety of reasons, it is a complex indicator that has various computational, structural and theoretical limitations, and as such should be used with caution. However, given its prominence (or perhaps dominance) in policy making and near-ubiquity in …
On September 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Confidence in August Ties 2012 Low.” The subtitle is “U.S. economic outlook lowest since December 2011; still better than year ago.” Two of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index registered -27 in August, matching the prior monthly low for the year, recorded in …