S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article:  “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …

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The Stock Market – Continued Weakness?

With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …

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S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …

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Notable S&P500 Price Action

The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions.  According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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US Dollar and S&P500 Comments

Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar.  I have added the 50-day moving average.  As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.”  This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: …

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When Might I Become “Bullish”?

In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …

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Danger In The Markets? Part V

This is the last blog post (Part V of V) in this “Danger In The Markets?” blog series. I would like to end this blog series with another look at the daily 1-year S&P500 chart.  This chart depicts a Rising Wedge from the March lows.  As well, I have indicated a potential H&S (Head and Shoulders) …

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Danger In The Markets? Part IV

The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com.  First, a daily 1-year chart of the S&P500.  The large broadening pattern  (in blue) is notable, as is the smaller one, as seen by the dotted line. chart provided by http://thechartpatterntrader.com Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com   Here is a weekly chart of the S&P500.  Notable …

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