America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently there have been a variety of discussions as to whether the stock market is experiencing a bubble. Among the main drivers of such discussion is the stock market’s seemingly near-constant price advancements, frequent record-high closes, and the duration of the advance, all of which are against the backdrop of the (at best) slow-growth economy. …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 30th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of October 22, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $109.28/share Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 17, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $107.52/share …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (October 18, 2013) close. Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with price labels as well as the 13- and 34-month moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart to enlarge …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 29th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through yesterday’s closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” This post is the latest update of that message. Although financial stocks have (in general) increased in price since 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor …