The McClellan Oscillator’s Performance

There are several interesting facets of the markets right now.  I will soon comment on some of them. From a stock market perspective, the performance of the McClellan Oscillator is one such facet.  Here is commentary from yesterday’s http://www.sentimentrader.com/ that I found very interesting: “Remarkably, the Oscillator hit a deeply oversold reading yesterday, nearly 2 standard deviations below its … Read moreThe McClellan Oscillator’s Performance

The “Buy and Hold” Philosophy

Here is a story from CNBC.com on September 23: “Buy-and-Hold Investing Makes A Return After Turbulent Year” http://www.cnbc.com/id/32970487 I am not a fan of the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, although I will concede that it worked (very) well, generally speaking, during the 20th Century. As far as the present and future is concerned, I wrote … Read moreThe “Buy and Hold” Philosophy

Extreme Peril In The Stock Market

Please note – some might find this post disturbing In this post I will summarize my thoughts on the markets, particularly the stock market.  As has been the case since the Economic Crisis began, any stock market weakness will most likely be mirrored in a variety of other markets as well, such as commodities, credit, etc. … Read moreExtreme Peril In The Stock Market

Peril In The Markets? Part IV

The price action in the S&P500 since the March low at ~666 has struck me as being very “impulsive.”  This is certainly a cause for concern.  Also, there certainly has not been any significant “wall of worry” that one would expect given the fundamentals. The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com.  First, a … Read morePeril In The Markets? Part IV

Peril In The Markets? Part III

Moving on to the stock market…  The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index.  I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart.  What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart … Read morePeril In The Markets? Part III

Peril In The Markets? Part II

I have included two charts of the Ten-Year Treasury yields below – one daily and one monthly.  The monthly is provided for a longer-term perspective. I would like to address the daily chart.  It seems odd that in an environment in which inflation is (purportedly) a growing concern the economy is supposedly recovering faster than … Read morePeril In The Markets? Part II

Peril In The Markets? Part I

The next few posts will contain some of my thoughts on the markets from a Technical Analysis perspective.   Typically I don’t comment about my observations from a technical perspective.  However, I believe we are at a very critical juncture here in the markets.   I am not aware of anyone discussing imminent peril in the markets right now, … Read morePeril In The Markets? Part I

P/E Ratios and Inflation / Deflation

I recently came across an interesting chart titled “Relationship Of Inflation and Price/Earnings Ratios (1900-2008).”  It is from Crestmont Research and can be found at this link: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20Inflation%20&%20PE.pdf It shows the effect of inflation and deflation (as defined by the CPI) on the P/E Ratio. I think that it is worth looking at for a variety … Read moreP/E Ratios and Inflation / Deflation

What Is The Stock Market “Telling” Us?

With the stock market (as seen in the S&P500) recently near the 1020 level, there is no debating that the rally since the early March lows of 666 has been a very strong one.  Also, there have been very strong rallies in other markets as well (Nasdaq, Emerging Markets, Debt Markets, etc.) Below is the 1-Year Daily … Read moreWhat Is The Stock Market “Telling” Us?