2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for … Read more2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

US Dollar and S&P500 Comments

Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar.  I have added the 50-day moving average.  As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.”  This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: … Read moreUS Dollar and S&P500 Comments

S&P500 Downtrend And 50% Retracement

The following chart shows a Weekly Log Chart of the S&P500 from 2007.  I have drawn a trendline from the October 2007 highs as well as a retracement indicator from the March 2009 bottom of ~666.  (Please note that the trendline and retracement both might be off by a “hair,” but this is relatively immaterial … Read moreS&P500 Downtrend And 50% Retracement

When Might I Become “Bullish”?

In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market … Read moreWhen Might I Become “Bullish”?

Danger In The Markets? Part IV

The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com.  First, a daily 1-year chart of the S&P500.  The large broadening pattern  (in blue) is notable, as is the smaller one, as seen by the dotted line. chart provided by http://thechartpatterntrader.com Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com   Here is a weekly chart of the S&P500.  Notable … Read moreDanger In The Markets? Part IV

Danger In The Markets? Part III

Moving on to the stock market.  First, a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500.  Although at first glance, the advance from the March lows doesn’t appear too suspect, two aspects are notable.  One can see that currently the price has dipped below the 50 day moving average (line seen in blue -the red line is … Read moreDanger In The Markets? Part III

Danger In The Markets? Part II

Before displaying some charts of the stock market, I would like to post a couple of the Japanese Yen.  My comment of September 14 is relevant today: “Additionally, is it not odd, on an “all things considered” basis, that the Japanese Yen is rising at what appears to be an increasing rate?  This rise commenced in mid-2007, as … Read moreDanger In The Markets? Part II

Danger In The Markets? Part I

This series of blog posts represents a periodic Technical Analysis of the markets.  My last series of posts (5 parts) of this nature was titled “Peril In The Markets?” and started September 13.  At the conclusion of that series of posts, I wrote this blog post summarizing my thoughts: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/09/17/extreme-peril-in-the-stock-market/ Although a stock market crash did not … Read moreDanger In The Markets? Part I