America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Moving on to the stock market… The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index. I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart. What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart …
I have included two charts of the Ten-Year Treasury yields below – one daily and one monthly. The monthly is provided for a longer-term perspective. I would like to address the daily chart. It seems odd that in an environment in which inflation is (purportedly) a growing concern the economy is supposedly recovering faster than …
The next few posts will contain some of my thoughts on the markets from a Technical Analysis perspective. Typically I don’t comment about my observations from a technical perspective. However, I believe we are at a very critical juncture here in the markets. I am not aware of anyone discussing imminent peril in the markets right now, …
I recently came across an interesting chart titled “Relationship Of Inflation and Price/Earnings Ratios (1900-2008).” It is from Crestmont Research and can be found at this link: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20Inflation%20&%20PE.pdf It shows the effect of inflation and deflation (as defined by the CPI) on the P/E Ratio. I think that it is worth looking at for a variety …
With the stock market (as seen in the S&P500) recently near the 1020 level, there is no debating that the rally since the early March lows of 666 has been a very strong one. Also, there have been very strong rallies in other markets as well (Nasdaq, Emerging Markets, Debt Markets, etc.) Below is the 1-Year Daily …
As seen in the Fortune story of June 15 titled “Economy in ‘early stages of repair’”: “The stock market’s rally serves as “broad validation” of the Obama administration’s financial rescue efforts, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Monday.” While ostensibly this is correct, and commonly-held theory states that a stock market rally would precede an economic …
In the last post, Warren Buffett commented what he was seeing with regard to signs of an upturn. This link contains what John Rice, Vice Chairman of GE recently (6/19) said: “I am not particularly of the green shoots group yet,” Rice said today to the Atlanta Press Club, referring to a phrase used by Federal Reserve …
Please note; some will find this post disturbing I would like to call your attention to the article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” which is found under the “Investor” heading here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/prosperitybypencom-directory/ With the S&P500 currently at 893.72, I am sure that many will find the mere notion of the 100 level to be highly …
I’m sure everyone has seen the various charts depicting the stock market during The Great Depression to that of our recent period. The comparisons that I have seen show a definite visual resemblance, and perhaps that is what is attracting such attention, as these charts have proven very popular. From my perspective, I think that any resemblance …
One phrase that I have heard mentioned a few times is that the economic and market declines of 2008-early2009 created a “Opportunity of a Lifetime” to buy stocks, businesses, and other assets. I am not sure what reasoning is used to justify the “Opportunity of a Lifetime” phrase (and no reasoning has been provided). It would …