America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010 1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010 1187.6 June 30, 2011 1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011 1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article: “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …
With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …
The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions. According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …
Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers. I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010. As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …
Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar. I have added the 50-day moving average. As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.” This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: …
The following chart shows a Weekly Log Chart of the S&P500 from 2007. I have drawn a trendline from the October 2007 highs as well as a retracement indicator from the March 2009 bottom of ~666. (Please note that the trendline and retracement both might be off by a “hair,” but this is relatively immaterial …
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …
This is the last blog post (Part V of V) in this “Danger In The Markets?” blog series. I would like to end this blog series with another look at the daily 1-year S&P500 chart. This chart depicts a Rising Wedge from the March lows. As well, I have indicated a potential H&S (Head and Shoulders) …