The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As …

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Another Economic Outlook Index

I came upon another economic outlook index, this one titled “USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index.”  The link is found here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm The index is designed to predict real GDP growth and is a composite of 11 indicators. Currently the chart shows a prediction for each month in 2010 up through June.  The June …

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The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months.  The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1.  From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy …

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Stiglitz On 2010

Here is a story from yesterday on comments by Joseph Stiglitz about his views on 2010 economic performance: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34507080 From the article: “Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year…” I find Stiglitz’s view significant because it is in marked contrast to that of the …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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A Comment On Ben Bernanke’s December 7 Speech

I would like to briefly comment on Ben Bernanke’s December 7 speech, that can be found at this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091207a.htm Here is one excerpt that I found notable: “Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year–sufficient to …

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The Latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125797275784744057.html There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists.  As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the …

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The below link discusses a new economic forecast index called the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:   http://knowledgetoday.wharton.upenn.edu/2009/10/the-economy-right-now.html Here is a chart of the index that can be found on the Philadelphia Fed website at this link: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ From the above Philadelphia Fed link: “The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high …

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