America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on November 29, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 23, …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 26, 2012: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 11/23/12 (incorporating data through 11/16/12) the WLI was at …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Atlanta Fed maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on November 22, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 16, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on November 15, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 9, …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 9, 2012. The headline is “Storm Expected to Trim Growth, not Spending.” An excerpt: On average, the economists see a small chance of recession over the next 12 months—at about 1-in-5, basically unchanged over the past five months. But most respondents still think …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 9. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2012 : 2.2% full-year 2013 : 2.0% full-year 2014 …