The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As …

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The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey can be found at this link. There wasn’t much change in the survey results from last month.  Also, as seen in the detail, there hasn’t been much change for many of the parameters for the last few months. As I have previously commented, I find it highly …

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Another Economic Outlook Index

I came upon another economic outlook index, this one titled “USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index.”  The link is found here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm The index is designed to predict real GDP growth and is a composite of 11 indicators. Currently the chart shows a prediction for each month in 2010 up through June.  The June …

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The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months.  The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1.  From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy …

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Stiglitz On 2010

Here is a story from yesterday on comments by Joseph Stiglitz about his views on 2010 economic performance: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34507080 From the article: “Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year…” I find Stiglitz’s view significant because it is in marked contrast to that of the …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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A Comment On Ben Bernanke’s December 7 Speech

I would like to briefly comment on Ben Bernanke’s December 7 speech, that can be found at this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091207a.htm Here is one excerpt that I found notable: “Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year–sufficient to …

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The Latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125797275784744057.html There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists.  As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the …

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The below link discusses a new economic forecast index called the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:   http://knowledgetoday.wharton.upenn.edu/2009/10/the-economy-right-now.html Here is a chart of the index that can be found on the Philadelphia Fed website at this link: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ From the above Philadelphia Fed link: “The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high …

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