The Latest WSJ Forecasting Survey

I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well … Read more The Latest WSJ Forecasting Survey

Updates On Economic Indicators

I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25.  Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

The Commonality of The “Jobless Recovery” Belief

The following story from CNBC.com will serve as a good prelude to a series of posts I will write on joblessness and hiring.  It discusses the widely-held (among economists) view that we are entering a “jobless recovery.” : http://www.cnbc.com/id/32104155 It is important to note the commonality of the concept in economists’ forecasts. As I mentioned on June 9, … Read more The Commonality of The “Jobless Recovery” Belief

Another Forecast Mentioning “Double-Dip” Possibility

Goldman Sachs yesterday came out with a new forecast on the S&P500 price as well as operating earnings, as seen on CNBC.com here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31774313 I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future: “Goldman’s current economic view is for below-trend growth through … Read more Another Forecast Mentioning “Double-Dip” Possibility

Laura Tyson on Economic Forecasting

I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson.  It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting.  Here is her quote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31910717/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ “We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. … Read more Laura Tyson on Economic Forecasting

Roubini’s Statement of Yesterday

After I wrote a post yesterday about Nouriel Roubini’s latest thoughts on the economy going forward, he came out with a statement that elaborated upon his stance.  It can be found at the following link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275 As I pointed out yesterday, I find his views and forecasts to be important for a number of reasons, … Read more Roubini’s Statement of Yesterday

Economic Forecast From The Federal Reserve

The recently released minutes of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting, found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20090624.htm stated the following:  “The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. … Read more Economic Forecast From The Federal Reserve

Recent ECRI Statements

In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says … Read more Recent ECRI Statements

Some Corporate Views On The Economy

Here are some recent articles in which corporations opine about the economy.  In general, in these articles it is seen that these corporations agree with the current economist consensus that “the worst is over”: U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Shrank Least Since August (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_.lKyRsGFJg “Car Makers See End to Sales Slide” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124646313562280557.html “FedEx Sees Signs of a Turnaround” … Read more Some Corporate Views On The Economy

More Latest Thoughts from Economists

I’ve recently run across three other economist forecasting items I would like to post.  While I don’t mean to overemphasize these forecasts, I do think they are very significant on a number of fronts; and as such they deserve close monitoring and continual analysis and commentary: First, another economist forecast survey that seems generally in … Read more More Latest Thoughts from Economists