Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …

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CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2013 – Notable Excerpts

On January 8, 2014, The Conference Board and PwC released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 60, up from 54 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this January 8 Press Release include: …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 9, 2014 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 9, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 3, …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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December 2013 Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On December 11 the December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 2, 2014 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 2, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 27, …

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