ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive … Read more ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

Bloomberg BusinessWeek Story – Wall Street’s Biggest Bears

The June 14-June 21 2010 Bloomberg BusinessWeek had a cover story titled “Time to Slip Into Something Less Comfortable?” The subtitle reads: “The bearish forecasters who rose to fame in the market crash of 2008 have, for the most part, not surrendered their pessimism.  Their moment could be coming back around.” While I don’t necessarily … Read more Bloomberg BusinessWeek Story – Wall Street’s Biggest Bears

Ben Bernanke’s Comments On The Current Economic Forecast

I found Ben Bernanke’s comments on the economic outlook, given last Wednesday (June 9), to be interesting. Here are some excerpts, as published in this Wall Street Journal article of June 10: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered guarded reassurances about the economy in testimony to the House Budget Committee Wednesday, saying a new recession … Read more Ben Bernanke’s Comments On The Current Economic Forecast

The June 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was interesting on a couple of fronts. First, as stated in the article, “The economists in the survey put the odds of a double-dip recession at 19%.” Second, as seen in the detail of this survey, the survey now includes more forecast information for December … Read more The June 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article:  “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses … Read more S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

The May 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey focuses on the economic problems in Europe and the odds of The Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. As seen in the detail of this survey, the current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 among economists polled include the following: Ten-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16% CPI: 1.8% Unemployment: 9.3% … Read more The May 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10) The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: an excerpt dated 4/29/10: “The April update of … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

NBER BCDC Member Robert J. Gordon Comments

On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments.  Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, … Read more NBER BCDC Member Robert J. Gordon Comments

The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest. First, an interesting quote in the survey: “”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of … Read more The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey