America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 23, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
On May 17, CNBC had an article titled “Goldman’s Hatzius: The Next US Recession Is ‘Years Away’” An excerpt: “There’s still a long way to go. The unemployment rate is still 9 percent, we’re nowhere close to a really tight labor market that usually predicates a recession, so I think we’re still be in a …
The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of April 26-27, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections. As stated: “In conjunction with the April 26-27, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in …
The Philadelphia Fed Second Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 13. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 2.7% full-year 2012 : 3.0% full-year 2013 : 2.8% …
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published May 16, 2011. The headline is “Economists in Survey Discount Inflation.” Most of the article discusses inflation expectations, although raising the debt ceiling and other topics are touched upon as well. The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following: GDP: full-year 2011 : …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 28, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the March 23 Press Release, titled “Economic index …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published April 11, 2011. The headline is “Economists See Growth Accelerating Later in Year.” I find the most notable aspects of this survey to be in the survey detail (spreadsheet), in which the economists judge factors that have recently adversely impacted the economy, and also predict …
On March 31, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 1st Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 67, up from 62 in the first quarter. An excerpt …
On March 30 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 1st quarter. The March Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on March 9. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook …
One doesn’t hear much about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) with regard to measuring stress in the financial system. Here is a document (pdf) that explains the construction of this index. My thoughts on this index are varied and complex. For now, I am simply posting it as a reference, as I …