Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q3 2022

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 12, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

Read more

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2023

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.49: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 19, 2023 update (reflecting data through January 13, 2023) is -.3061: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 5, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 30, 2022) is -.0134: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more

The CFO Survey Fourth Quarter 2022 – Notable Excerpts

On December 21, 2022 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFO optimism about …

Read more

CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2022 – Notable Excerpts

On December 5, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2022.   Notable excerpts from this December 5, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q4“: Business Roundtable today released its Q4 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 15, 2022 update (reflecting data through December 9, 2022) is .2480: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more