The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
Two excerpts:
Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.
also:
Economists’ average forecasts suggest that they expect a recession to be relatively short-lived. Of the economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year, their average expectation for the length of a recession was eight months. The average postwar recession lasted 10.2 months.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 49%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted October 7 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2022: .22%
full-year 2023: .44%
full-year 2024: 1.82%
full-year 2025: 2.12%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2022: 3.70%
December 2023: 4.71%
December 2024: 4.64%
December 2025: 4.31%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 3.84%
December 2023: 3.45%
December 2024: 3.19%
December 2025: 3.20%
CPI:
December 2022: 7.18%
December 2023: 3.25%
December 2024: 2.42%
December 2025: 2.25%
Core PCE:
full-year 2022: 4.82%
full-year 2023: 3.19%
full-year 2024: 2.34%
full-year 2025: 2.13%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3583.07as this post is written