The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.
Economists’ average forecasts suggest that they expect a recession to be relatively short-lived. Of the economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year, their average expectation for the length of a recession was eight months. The average postwar recession lasted 10.2 months.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 49%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted October 7 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2022: .22%
full-year 2023: .44%
full-year 2024: 1.82%
full-year 2025: 2.12%
December 2022: 3.70%
December 2023: 4.71%
December 2024: 4.64%
December 2025: 4.31%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 3.84%
December 2023: 3.45%
December 2024: 3.19%
December 2025: 3.20%
December 2022: 7.18%
December 2023: 3.25%
December 2024: 2.42%
December 2025: 2.25%
full-year 2022: 4.82%
full-year 2023: 3.19%
full-year 2024: 2.34%
full-year 2025: 2.13%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3583.07as this post is written