Annual S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2019, 2020 & 2021

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 17, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019 & 2020 – June 13, 2019

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 13, 2019: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $164.93/share …

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The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 13, 2019.  The headline is “Trump Tariffs Are Short-Term Pain Without Long-Term Gain, Economists Say.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – June 2019

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …

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Deflation Probabilities – June 10, 2019 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the June 6, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 31, 2019) is -1.191. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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NFIB Small Business Optimism – May 2019

The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 11, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in May by 1.5 points to 105.0. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …

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Building Financial Danger – June 10, 2019 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey June 2019

The June 2019 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 7, 2019 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Jun. 28, 2019   2860.0 Dec. 31, 2019  2900.0 June 30, 2020  2950.0 Dec. 31, 2020  3042.7 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …

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