America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Doug Short site had a post of June 28, 2019 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Small Decline in June“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May 2019, updated on June 26, 2019. This value is $243,367 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 20, 2019 update (reflecting data through June 14, 2019) is -1.217. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 24, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.05: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2019 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2019. As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 159 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 13, 2019 update (reflecting data through June 7, 2019) is -1.189. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …