America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 21, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 15, 2019: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $165.53/share …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 20, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.45: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 9, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 3, 2019) is -1.353. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 10, 2019. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019: 2.6% full-year 2020: 2.0% full-year 2021: …
The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019. The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 2, 2019 update (reflecting data through April 26, 2019) is -1.336. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …