Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of January 11, 2018, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …

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The January 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 11, 2018.  The headline is “Economists Credit Trump as Tailwind for U.S. Growth, Hiring and Stocks.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …

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Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q4 2017 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2017. As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 147 survey respondents.  As stated:  “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 4, 2018 update (reflecting data through December 29, 2017) is -1.562. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2017 – Notable Excerpts

On January 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, up from 59 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this January 4 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …

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Building Financial Danger – January 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of January 5, 2018

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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