America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 21, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 16, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $125.15/share …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .65: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weak growth or economic contraction. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q3 2018 management call transcript (pdf) dated November 16, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q3 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 9, 2017 update (reflecting data through November 3, 2017) is -1.60. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 13, 2017. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2017: 2.2% full-year 2018: 2.5% full-year 2019: …
As reference, here is a long-term chart of the S&P500 (top plot) and 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield (bottom plot) since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis through the November 10, 2017 closing values: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …