America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 9, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 15, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $128.17/share …
The June 2017 Livingston Survey published on June 16, 2017 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2017 2410.0 Dec. 29, 2017 2470.0 June 29, 2018 2550.0 Dec. 31, 2018 2630.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters …
On Wednesday, June 14, 2017 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled June 2017 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 8, 2017 update (reflecting data through June 2, 2017) is -1.58. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of June 28, 2016 titled “U.S. Deflation – June 28, 2016 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 13, 2017. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Continues Remarkable Surge.” The Index of Small Business Optimism was unchanged in May at 104.5. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The June 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 8, 2017. The headline is “Unresolved U.S. Debt Ceiling Casts a Shadow Over Many Forecasters’ Economic Outlooks.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …