America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 19, 2017 update (reflecting data through January 13, 2017) is -1.210. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 17, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 12, 2017: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.82/share …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 91 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The January 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 12, 2017. The headline is “Forecasters See Upside Risks to Their Economic Outlooks at Highest in More Than Two Years.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 5, 2017 update (reflecting data through December 30, 2016) is -1.148. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The existence of asset bubbles continues to be among the most critical – and troubling – characteristics of the current-era U.S. economy. I have written extensively on the subject for a number of reasons, including its monumental importance as well as its poorly understood nature. There are many theories as to why asset bubbles form. …