America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 20, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 15, 2016: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.95/share …
In the December 19, 2016 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2017: This Bull Has Legs.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: Every September and December, Barron’s surveys …
Recently a number of prominent parties have stated that, in effect, the financial system is “stable” and “strong.” One such example is the comments made by Janet Yellen in the December 14, 2016 FOMC Press Conference (“Janet Yellen’s December 14, 2016 Press Conference.”) Many attribute various financial regulations and reforms, enacted since the Financial Crisis, …
On Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled December 2016 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 8, 2016 update (reflecting data through December 2) is -1.10. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Stocks have performed strongly since the elections, and various indices have achieved a series of record-high closes since that time. However, at this time there are indications that the S&P500 may be peaking. For reference purposes, below is a 1-year chart of the S&P500 and VIX through Tuesday’s (December 13, 2016) close. The closing price …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of December 12, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …