America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 19, 2016: (current reading of .10; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.22): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q1 2017 management call transcript (pdf) dated May 19, 2016. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q1 results(pdf) and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous …
On May 18, 2016, the Zillow Q2 2016 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Two excerpts from the Press Release: Overall, the economists surveyed predicted home price appreciation would be up 4 percent year-over-year at the end of 2016, higher than predictions of 3.7 percent indicated in …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 18, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 12, 2016: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $114.74/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 12, 2016 update (reflecting data through May 6) is -.919. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On Friday (May 13, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed at 1.705%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) Here is a …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through May 13, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog …
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2016 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 13, 2016. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2016: 1.7% full-year 2017: 2.4% full-year 2018: …