Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 21, 2016: (current reading of -.44; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.18): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 14, 2016 update (reflecting data through April 8) is -.814. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …

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S&P500 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018 EPS Estimates

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 9c of “This Week In Earnings” (pdf) of April 15, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2016 & 2017 – As Of April 13, 2016

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 13, 2016: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $117.47/share …

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Persistent U.S. Federal Budget Deficits

In various posts as well as seen in the “America’s Trojan Horse” discussion, I have discussed various aspects of both the federal deficit and federal debt.  Both of these issues remain highly problematical in many ways.  At the same time, many aspects of the problems and their future implications lack recognition, either partially or fully. …

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Disturbing Charts (Update 22)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 82 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 7, 2016 update (reflecting data through April 1) is -.808. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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April 2016 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2016 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “World Economic Outlook:  Too Slow for Too Long.” One area of the report is Figure 1.18 on page 28.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and …

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