Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2015 & 2016 – As Of December 10, 2015

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 10, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $106.55/share …

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Janet Yellen’s December 16, 2015 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, December 16, 2015 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled December 2015 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through December 4) is -.832. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Chart Of Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative To The Yield On The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of the measure, with a current reading (updated …

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2016 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 14, 2015 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Stocks Have Room to Rise 10% in 2016, Market Strategists Say.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2016 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: Based …

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Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields – December 14, 2015 Update

For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …

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Deflation Probabilities – December 10, 2015 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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