America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 11, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $115.85/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 11, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 5) is -1.031. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2015. The headline is “Economists See Bright Consumer Outlook.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: But the forecasters think a …
On June 5, 2015 the June Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: U.S. companies expect wage hikes of more than 3 percent over the next year, with …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 1Q 2015“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2015:Q1). The last value (as of June 11, 2015) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of June 11, 2015 titled “Fed’s Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
The June 2015 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 10, 2015 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2015 2107.70 Dec. 31, 2015 2158.00 June 30, 2016 2218.00 Dec. 31, 2016 2243.00 These figures represent the median value across the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 4, 2015 update (reflecting data through May 29) is -1.091. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 49th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …