America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of April 21, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 17, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.02/share …
On April 8, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 57, down from 60 in the fourth quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this April 8 Press Release include: …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 20, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of April 17, 2015 (incorporating data through April …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 9, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 3) is -1.072. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The March NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, April 14, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “In Rare Occurrence, All Ten Components Of NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Weakened.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased 2.8 points in March to 95.2. Here are some excerpts from that …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 70 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors.” One area of the report is Figure 1.13 on page 20. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 9, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Think Fed Will Wait Until September to Raise Rates.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …