Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields – February 20, 2015 Update

For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 19, 2015 update (reflecting data through February 13) is -.928. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Walmart’s Q4 2015 Results – Comments

I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2015 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 19, 2015.  (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices.  I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …

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The Stock Market Bubble – February 2015 Update

This post is an update to various past posts concerning the stock market bubble, most recently that of November 21, 2013 titled “Is The Stock Market Experiencing A Bubble?” Many people don’t believe that we are currently experiencing a stock market bubble because their primary reference regarding stock market bubbles is that of the mid- …

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Zillow Q1 2015 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On February 13, 2015, the Zillow Q1 2015 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the Press Release: The panelists predicted U.S. home values will rise 4.4 percent in 2015, to a median value of $187,040. The most optimistic forecasted a 5.5 percent increase, while the …

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Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2015 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2015 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 13, 2015.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2015:  3.2% full-year 2016:  2.9% full-year 2017: …

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The February 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 12, 2015.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing On Capital Investment.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 5, 2015 update (reflecting data through January 30) is -.883. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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NFIB Small Business Optimism – January 2015

The January NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, February 10, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “NFIB:  Small Business Optimism Falls, But Still In Normal Zone.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased 2.5 points in January to 97.9. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly …

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The Accuracy Of Economic Forecasts

On February 2, 2015 the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) published an Economic Letter titled “Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth.” (pdf) This Economic Letter has many notable aspects.  Here are some excerpts that I found particularly notable, although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Economic forecasting can be a humbling endeavor. In a …

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