Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 2, 2015 update (reflecting data through December 26) is -.989. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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10-Year Treasury Yield – Long-Term Chart As Of January 7, 2015

Yesterday, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury went below 1.90%, before closing at 1.963%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale, with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) …

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Crude Oil Price Chart From The Year 2000

One notable aspect of the financial markets is the continuing sharp drop in crude oil prices.  Other commodities have also been under selling pressure.  I view these declines, as well as other aspects of the overall financial system, to be manifestations of “deflationary pressures,” of which I have extensively written. For reference purposes, here is …

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Deflation Probabilities – January 5, 2015 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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Long-Term DJIA, Transports, S&P500, And Nasdaq Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – January 5, 2015 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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