Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 22, 2015 update (reflecting data through January 16) is -.807. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …

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S&P500 Earnings Estimates – Years 2014 Through 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of January 20, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $116.89/share …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of January 16, 2015

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 16, 2015: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $115.82/share …

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The January 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2015.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See 2015 GDP Growth at 3%.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: The …

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Disturbing Charts (Update 17)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 67 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 8, 2015 update (reflecting data through January 2) is -.954. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – January 12,2015 Update

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent increased volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility …

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