America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, December 17, 2014 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled December press conference. (video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of December 18, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $117.22/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 11, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $116.94/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 11, 2014 update (reflecting data through December 5) is -1.075. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his December 11, 2014 post titled …
The December 2014 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 12, 2014 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2014 2065 June 30, 2015 2125 Dec. 31, 2015 2160.60 June 30, 2016 2300 These figures represent the median value across the …
In the December 15, 2014 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2015: Stick With the Bull.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: The strategists’ 2015 targets for the …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Stronger Growth in 2015.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: According to the panel …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …