America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On October 7, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Stable at -15 in September.” The subtitle is “Confidence slightly higher in most recent week.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index was steady in September, at -15 for the month, similar to the -16 it averaged in August. September’s reading …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 3rd Quarter of 2014. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred and three CFOs responded during the two-week period ending August 22. Seventy-five percent of respondents are from public companies, and 83% are from companies with more than $1B in annual …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through July) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 30 titled “House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in July” : (click on chart to enlarge image) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 25, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 19) is -1.189. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …