Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 16, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 10) is -1.065. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Janet Yellen Speech Regarding Wealth Inequality – Notable Excerpts

In past posts I have discussed various disconcerting aspects regarding the financial condition faced by large numbers of Americans, as well as the worrisome levels (and economic ramifications) of income and wealth disparity. On October 17, 2014 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech titled “Perspectives on Inequality and Opportunity from the Survey of …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …

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S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 Through 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of October 17, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $118.05/share …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of October 16, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 16, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.37/share …

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Deflation Probabilities – October 15, 2014 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – October 17,2014 Update

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent increased volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility …

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Disturbing Charts (Update 16)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 64 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 16, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 10) is -1.065. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

Read more