Recession Probability Models – June 2014

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – June 2014

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the May 29, 2014 update is -1.228. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

June 3 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On June 3, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Up to -14 in May.”  The subtitle is “May saw the highest weekly confidence reading since January.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index increased to -14 in May, its highest monthly reading in 2014 so far. May’s economic confidence reading, … Read more June 3 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

U.S. Dollar Decline – June 2, 2014 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – June 2, 2014 Update