America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 29, 2014 update is -1.228. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve …
On June 3, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Up to -14 in May.” The subtitle is “May saw the highest weekly confidence reading since January.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index increased to -14 in May, its highest monthly reading in 2014 so far. May’s economic confidence reading, …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his May 30, 2014 post titled “Real Median Household Income Fell .42 Percent in April” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as …