Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – May 8, 2014 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on May 8, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to May 2, …

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Building Financial Danger – May 8, 2014 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 36th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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May 6 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On May 6, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “No Movement for U.S. Economic Confidence in April.”  The subtitle is “Economic Confidence Index at -16, similar to March.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index remained at -16 for April, roughly matching the scores seen each month since January. also: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of May 2, 2014

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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